What is the relationship between the value of the rose of a club and the results obtained on the pitch? Is it true that whoever spends more on the market wins or otherwise achieves their seasonal goals more easily? Is it ever possible that the competitive balance of football tournaments depends solely on the amount of money a club possesses? Finding out whether there really is a close link between squad value and sporting results intrigued me so much that I conducted an analysis taking into consideration the market values of the German football portal Transfermarkt.
The study covers both the A Series both the Champions League.
Serie A, strong impact of squad value on final results
The period under consideration is from the 2010-2011 season to the 2017-2018 season. Analysing the relegated teams in these eight seasons of the Serie A championship, it is possible to state with certainty that at least one of the last three teams in the annual rose values (V.d.R.) relegated at the end of the
championship.
– 2010/2011 season
Relegated: Sampdoria, BresciaBari
Lower V.d.R: Brescia (49.10 mln), Bologna (47.18 mln), Lecce (35.50 mln).
– 2011/2012 season
Relegated: Lecce, Novara, Cesena
Lowest V.d.R.: Siena (43.50 mln), Lecce (37.03 mln), Novara (32.68 mln).
– 2012/2013 season
Relegated: Palermo, Siena, Pescara
Lowest V.d.R.: Catania (53.85 mln), Siena (50.95 mln), Pescara (45.70 mln).
– Season 2013/2014
Relegated: Catania, Bologna, Livorno
Lower V.d.R: Livorno (62.98 mln), Turin (60.70 mln), Verona (57.05 mln).
– 2014/2015 season
Relegated: Cagliari, Cesena, Parma
Lowest V.d.R.: Verona (45.78 mln), Empoli (35.63 mln), Cesena (35.60 mln).
– 2015/2016 Season
Relegated: Carpi, FrosinoneVerona
Lowest R.A.V.: Chievo (46.38 mln), Frosinone (43.10 mln), Empoli (37.78 mln).
– 2016/2017 season
Relegated: Empoli, Palermo, Pescara
Lower V.d.R: Pescara (44.45 mln), Palermo (42.78 mln), Crotone (24.90 mln).
– 2017/2018 Season
Relegated: Crotone, VeronaBenevento
Lowest R.O.V.: Spal (50.40 mln), Verona (46.30 mln), Crotone (37 mln).
If we take a look at the current league table, at the end of the first half of the season, the last two in the table, namely Frosinone and Chievo, also close the V.d.R. ranking, with 44.15 and 36.75 mln respectively. Third last in terms of squad value is Empoli (56.38 mln), currently in fourth-last place in the league. Following the trend of recent years, as well as the trend of the current championship, therefore, we can safely predict the relegation to Serie B of one of these three aforementioned teams.
If at the bottom of the table the theory has found ample confirmation, the discourse does not change when looking at the winners of the Serie A championship. Leaving the period of analysis unchanged, it was only in the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons that those who were crowned champions of Italy at the end of the competition did not correspond to the first ranked team in terms of V.d.R. In both cases, in fact, Inter possessed the most valuable squad, but it was Milan and Juve who won the Scudetto respectively. From the 2012- 2013 season onwards, Juventus excelled in both rankings. This year, too, the trend seems to be the same.
same.
The result of the analysis shows, therefore, that in Serie A, those with a more valuable squad are more likely to achieve their seasonal goals.
Champions League: the discourse does not change
Very similar is the discourse in the main European club tournament, the Champions League. Considering the group stage of the current league, the teams that qualified for the round of 16 were those that had the highest squad market value within their group.
In group A, Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid, exactly the two clubs with the highest value roses in the group (569.05 mln the Germans and 874.50 mln the Spaniards), advanced to the next stage of the tournament.
The same applies to groups C (PSG 904.65 mln and Liverpool 951.50 mln), D (Porto 277.98 mln and Schalke 04 255.20 mln), E (Bayern Munich 753.70 mln and Ajax 369.25 mln), F (Man.City 1.13 mln and Lyon 389.40 mln), G (Real Madrid 971.50 mln and Roma 401.20 mln), and H (Juventus 809.50 mln and Man.Utd 774 mln).
In Group B, however, the ranking even closely mirrored the V.d.R. ranking: Barcelona (1.18 mln), Tottenham (826.50 mln), Inter Milan (575.40 mln) and Psv Eindhoven (198.50).
It is therefore very clear that economic dominance coincides in most cases with sporting dominance.
Following this theory, let's try to predict who will pass the next round by entering the quarter-finals of the Champions League, and then check again in mid-March whether indeed the field has confirmed once again
time this thesis.
Rome - Porto -> Rome
Man.Utd - PSG -> PSG
Tottenham - B.Dortmund -> Tottenham
Ajax - Real Madrid -> Real Madrid
Lyon - Barcelona -> Barcelona
Liverpool - Bayern Munich -> Liverpool
Atletico Madrid - Juventus -> Juventus
Schalke 04 - Man.City -> Man.City
*Market values as at 2
January 2019
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